In this article Florian Eichert, senior covered bond analyst at Crédit Agricole CIB, tries to assess at what point we will have a more normal covered bond market again that does not just rely on what the Eurosystem does or does not do.
Norwegian residential mortgage lending regulations will be tightened and the countercyclical buffer (CCB) for banks increased to 1.5%, the Ministry of Finance announced this week, while Norges Bank cut its key policy rate by 0.25% today (Thursday).
Moody’s upgraded six Nordic issuers yesterday (Wednesday) – Danske, DNB, Handelsbanken, Nykredit Realkredit, SEB and Swedbank – citing strong macro profiles, healthy and strengthened core financial ratios and benefits of the introduction of bail-in regimes across the region.
Pohjola Bank mandated leads for a euro-denominated Tier 2 benchmark on Monday, but despite a smattering of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and Tier 2 supply this week a deal for the Finnish issuer did not emerge against the volatile market backdrop.
SEB took advantage of a window of stability early this week to issue a Eu1bn (Skr9.36bn) seven year covered bond on Tuesday, but both it and SCBC, which launched a Eu500m seven year into a deteriorating market on Thursday, had to revise their pricing expectations.
Kommunal Landspensjonskasse (KLP) sold a Eu600m 30 year non-call 10 Tier 2 transaction on Tuesday that, according to an official at the issuer, is its first bond issue in nine years and the largest ever from a Norwegian life insurance company in the international markets.
Länsförsäkringar Bank (LF Bank) sold its inaugural Additional Tier 1 issue on Tuesday, a Skr1.2bn (Eu128m) perpetual non-call five issue that achieved tight pricing relative to international markets and also LF’s Swedish peers in the domestic market. Meanwhile, SBAB issued a Skr1bn 10 year non-call five Tier 2.
SR-Boligkreditt issued its first covered bond yesterday (Thursday), a Nkr2bn (Eu229m) five year deal that an official at the issuer said represented a decent start to its issuance, even if the pricing was marginally wider than expected amid a volatile market.
Volatility sparked by a renewed sell-off in Bunds this week is set to decrease demand for any new euro covered bond benchmarks and divert issuance into shorter maturities, according to bankers, who have reined in supply expectations for the coming weeks.