Standard & Poor’s said on Tuesday that although there are concerns about the health of the Swedish housing market, its ratings of covered bonds in Sweden already reflect such risks, with the rating agency citing state support and resilience of its ratings to a sharp fall in house prices.
Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday placed Nykredit and DLR Kredit on CreditWatch Negative but affirmed its ratings of fellow Danish banks Jyske, Danske and Nordea Bank Danmark, after completing a review relating to the potential withdrawal of government support for the banking sector under the Bank Recovery & Resolution Directive.
Increasing economic risks may lead to bank downgrades in Norway and Finland, Standard & Poor’s has warned, while the introduction of bail-in regulation is putting pressure on banks across the Nordics. However, it sees positive signs for Icelandic banks.
Swedish house prices could fall in 2015 against a backdrop of stricter amortisation requirements and Europe’s deteriorating economic outlook, but Swedish covered bond ratings would likely prove resilient even if prices fell by 30%, Standard & Poor’s said yesterday (Wednesday).
Standard & Poor’s upgraded Realkredit Danmark senior secured issuance yesterday (Wednesday) following its lifting of parent bank Danske’s rating from A- to A Tuesday of last week, which came as part of wide-ranging BRRD-inspired bank rating actions.
S&P upgraded Danske and took rating actions on Swedish banks on Tuesday in connection with a raft of actions on European banks to reflect less assumed government support given new resolution frameworks, and also flagged plans to incorporate this into covered bond ratings.
The impact of the Norwegian housing market on covered bonds has been an ongoing topic for quite some time now. After strong growth of over 300% in the last 20 years, we’ve started to see the beginning of a correction in Norwegian house prices more recently.
A proposal for conditional mandatory extension of some Danish covered bonds is a “step in the right direction” but does not fully eradicate mortgage banks’ refinancing risk, S&P said yesterday (Wednesday), and an issuer said the rating agency’s intervention could be helpful.
SBAB and Svenska Handelsbanken had their ratings affirmed by S&P yesterday (Wednesday), two months after the rating agency placed them on CreditWatch negative.
Nykredit will launch its August refinancing auctions next Thursday, with one year ARM bonds dominating after a smaller than expected take-up of longer interest reset periods. Meanwhile, Realkredit Danmark is launching a Cita product aimed at addressing concerns about refinancing risk.